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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.